A couple of days ago Eurostat released a preliminary report of the GDP growth rate in the EU and Euro zones. It's not surprising, but the COVID-19 situation and the required mitigation measures have taken a toll on the economy in Europe. The report discussed how "Seasonally adjusted GDP decreased by 12.1% in the euro area and by 11.9% in the EU, compared with the previous quarter,". The graph above shows this dramatic trend.

The US has more than 3.7 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 and is therefore the country with the highest number of those in the world. What has been in the news lately is how states that rushed to reopen as quickly as possible, such as Texas and Florida, have had a steady and exponential increase in the total number of cases.

Next to California, which has also seen a sharp increase in the number of cases, mainly in Los Angeles county, those states are getting closer to matching the numbers of New York. It feels like a cautionary tale that "going back to normal" won't mean the pre-COVID-19 normal until there is an effective vaccine or treatment in place.

Fortunately an mRNA vaccine trial preliminary report in the NEJM stated the vaccine induced anti–SARS-CoV-2 immune responses in all participants, and no trial-limiting safety concerns were identified. Crossing our fingers for the next phases of those promising results.

There have been a few articles in the news lately discussing how the current occupant of the White House is losing ground against his democratic rival including: The remarkable collapse of Donald Trump's polling numbers and States that Trump won easily in 2016 are looking tight for him in November. The news is not surprising, given the horrible COVID-19 numbers in the USA, its economic impact, and the wave of protests against police brutality. The data from RealClearPolitics seems to confirm this trend.

Brazil has unfortunately become one of the new epicenters of the COVID-19 pandemic in the world. A recent editorial at The Lancet describes how Brazil is the country with the highest rate of transmission (R0 of 2·81), based on the data compiled by a study conducted at the Imperial College of London.

The title of the editorial ("So what?") summarises the biggest problem the country faces dealing with this disease, and that is the response (or lack thereof) of its president Jair Bolsonaro. His disdain for a vast proportion of the population suffering from this disease is outrageous, but not surprising.

Boa sorte Brasil, você vai precisar!

Last Easter holidays I set up this COVID-19 dashboard in one of my personal domains to follow the cases around the world, particularly in Europe. I used the data provided by the Johns Hopkins University, in particular their daily cases, deaths, and recoveries time series. Using those data points and doing some data wrangling it’s possible to get a lot of insights about what’s currently happening in the world.

The last time I blogged about this topic was exactly one month ago and there have been a lot of developments since then:

• In April I mentioned the US has become the new epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic and that’s still the case, but on a different scale. With over 1.3 million active cases, the United States accounts for 32.5% of all cases worldwide today. The situation in New York City is much better than it was then, but there are now multiple cases in rural areas, particularly in towns with meat processing plants
• The situation in the United Kingdom is dire as well. As of yesterday they have reported 31.3k deaths and 216.5k active cases, and they have less than 1k patients recovered from the disease. Famously, Boris Johnson got infected himself, requiring hospitalization and even ICU admission for a couple of days.
• In contrast, Germany has been recognized as one of the countries that has dealt with the pandemic in a responsible way using a science-based approach. They are still in the list of the Top 10 countries most affected by the disease but the death rate has been really low during the evolution of the pandemic.
• The Kiwi strategy has been one of the most successful ones in the world. A headline in the prestigious Lancet magazine summarises it all: New Zealand eliminates COVID-19. The administration of Jacinda Ardern couldn't be more proud of their decisions!

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