Eurostat's flash estimate for September is out, and it is not the news anyone was hoping for. Annual inflation in the euro area is expected to reach 3.8%, up from 3.2% in August and well above the 2.2% we had a year ago.

That is almost double the European Central Bank’s 2% target. As is so often the case, the culprit is energy. Energy prices are up 18.8% compared with last September, and they rose 3.9% in a single month. For perspective, a year ago energy was actually getting cheaper (−0.4%).

The good news, if there is any, is that the rest of the basket looks fairly calm. Strip out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, and core inflation sits at 2.5%, barely up from 2.4% in August. Services are at 3.2%, food at 1.4% and industrial goods at just 1.1%.

In other words, this looks like an energy shock rather than prices running away across the board. At least for now. Let’s hope there is some agreement on the Iran war, because, not surprisingly, rising oil prices are fueling this energy-driven inflation.