Every time I cross the border for groceries, I notice prices creeping up, so I was curious to see what the numbers say. According to the latest Eurostat release, annual inflation in the euro area rose to 3.8% in September 2026, up from 3.2% in August and 2.2% a year ago.

The chart above shows where that increase comes from. Energy is only about 9% of the basket, yet energy prices are up 18.9% year on year and now add 1.71 percentage points to the headline rate. That is almost half of all inflation. A year ago, energy was actually pulling inflation down slightly (-0.03 points).

Take energy out and the picture is much calmer. Inflation excluding energy is 2.3%, a bit lower than the 2.5% of September 2025. Services are still the largest steady contributor at 1.52 points, but they have barely moved in a year, and food has cooled from 3.0% to 1.3%.

So is this a real inflation problem or an energy shock? For now it looks like the second. The question is how long energy stays this expensive before it starts leaking into everything else :/. The next estimate probably will paint a clearer picture.

Note: Please find an interactive version of the chart above here.